If a recruiter says, "The role is currently on hold for August. Next steps will be determined in September." What exactly does this mean? Is this a positive or negative sign for the candidate?

I suppose it depends on whether it affects you in any way. If it does, then actions may be warranted. If it doesn’t affect you directly, perhaps affecting a fellow team member, you’ll need to decide whether it’s any of your business to intervene on the other’s behalf. It may be more appropriate to support your fellow team member if they want to move forward in addressing the issue, rather than taking it on yourself.

My friend told me "within reason" but what's your interpretation of that? More than half? One or two years short? I have 2.5 years of experience for a job that requires 5. Still worth applying for?

I’ve heard 70 to 75% bandied about as a reasonable expectation to be considered as a possible applicant for a job position.

You are guaranteed not to get 100% of the jobs you don’t apply for.